Market-Based Odds for the Next BoC Decision
Live rate hike cut probabilities show how financial markets are pricing upcoming Bank of Canada policy decisions in real time. These probabilities reflect how traders, investors, and institutions are positioning ahead of each BoC meeting.
Specifically, this page tracks live rate hike and cut probabilities for upcoming BoC decisions using market-based instruments. These include CORRA futures, OIS swaps, and government bond yield movements.
As a result, the probabilities update daily as new economic data, inflation readings, and central bank signals are absorbed by markets.
Market Instruments Used
The model relies on several market-based inputs to estimate policy rate expectations.
In particular, it uses the following instruments:
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CORRA futures (Montreal Exchange, 3-month contracts)
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OIS swaps (overnight index swaps curve)
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Government bond yields (1-year to 5-year maturities)
Together, these instruments reflect what the market currently expects the Bank of Canada to do next.
Odds Table: Upcoming BoC Meetings
| Meeting Date | Hold Odds | Cut Odds | Hike Odds | Implied Policy Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 30, 2025 | 98% | 2% | 0% | 2.74% |
| Sept 17, 2025 | 82% | 18% | 0% | 2.70% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 66% | 34% | 0% | 2.67% |
These live rate hike cut probabilities are based on the latest futures pricing and OIS curve extrapolation. The table updates automatically every trading day.
How These Odds Are Calculated
Our model analyzes several components to estimate probabilities for each meeting.
First, it calculates the average implied overnight rate for each month using 3-month CORRA futures.
Next, it compares that implied rate with the Bank of Canada’s current target rate, such as 2.75%.
Then, it estimates how much the policy rate would need to change between now and a given meeting to match the futures-implied rate.
Finally, the model assigns probability-weighted outcomes. For example, a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point cut results in an implied rate of 2.625%.
To improve precision, this analysis is combined with OIS swap rates and government bond yield curvature.
Why This Matters
In practice, these probabilities are useful for several groups.
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Homebuyers can get a clearer picture of where mortgage rates may be headed
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Businesses can better time financing or refinancing decisions
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Investors can gauge how market expectations may affect bonds, equities, and foreign exchange
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Market watchers can track sentiment shifts after key inflation or employment reports
Overall, this tool helps identify changes in expectations as new information enters the market.
Historical Accuracy
Over the past six Bank of Canada decisions, the model’s implied probabilities aligned with actual outcomes five out of six times.
Markets are not perfect. However, they are often the earliest signal of a potential turn in monetary policy.
