- Frequently Asked Questions
What do you
need to know?
the most common questions about how we track interest rate expectations, calculate probabilities, and interpret market data. If you still have questions, feel free to reach out or start a live chat.
We track how markets are pricing the chances of interest rate changes by the Bank of Canada. This includes the probability of a rate hike, cut, or pause.
These probabilities are based on financial instruments like CORRA futures and Overnight Index Swaps (OIS). Our platform takes this data and turns it into clear visuals so you can understand market expectations in real time.
We use an internal model that converts OIS-implied interest rates into probability ranges for different policy outcomes. These include scenarios like holding rates steady or adjusting by 10 or 25 basis points.
Our approach is built on methods used by professional analysts and traders. It avoids rounding or oversimplification, so the results reflect real market behavior. While we don’t share the exact formula, the logic is designed to mirror institutional tools.
Different tools use different inputs and assumptions. For example:
Some assume only one rate move per meeting
Others use futures instead of swaps
Calculation methods can vary from simple math to complex models
Bloomberg’s WIRP is helpful but has limitations. Our tool is focused solely on the Bank of Canada and is designed to reflect Canadian markets more accurately and transparently.
During market hours, we update the probabilities several times a day. The market's level of volatility and whether fresh information influences swap and futures prices will determine the timing.
Instead of old or delayed data, you'll always see the most recent picture of what the market anticipates.
The Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average is known as CORRA. It is the benchmark interest rate that is risk-free and established by the Bank of Canada.
Overnight Index Swaps, or OISs, are agreements that let two parties trade interest payments, one fixed and the other based on an overnight rate such as CORRA.
We can determine what traders believe the Bank of Canada will do by examining the pricing of OIS contracts, particularly those that mature following a policy meeting.
No. A 70% probability means the market is leaning toward that outcome, but it’s not a prediction or a guarantee.
These probabilities reflect the consensus at a moment in time. They can change quickly based on new data, central bank comments, or global developments.
Of course. Regardless of whether you're a borrower or mortgage broker monitoring rate risks, m anaging rate-sensitive assets as an investor, j ournalists or economists who study monetary policy, s tudent or policy observer
…BankofCanadaodds.com provides you with a visual, real-time window into how markets are interpreting the BoC.
We use a mix of public and institutional-grade sources, including:
Real-time pricing from OIS markets
CORRA benchmarks
Bank of Canada meeting calendars
Our internal system processes these inputs to provide fast, accurate, and reliable updates.
Yes, as long as you include proper credit. You’re welcome to reference or share our charts, visuals, and insights in your writing or research.
If you’re looking for commercial data access or a custom data feed, contact us directly.
Our group of data geeks, product developers, and market analysts wanted an easy-to-use, transparent method of tracking Canadian interest rate expectations without having to pay for a $20K terminal subscription.
Our goal is to make this data more widely available and assist everyone, not just insiders, in understanding the direction of rates.