- About Bank of Canada Odds
Built to Make Rate Expectations
Readable for Every Canadian
Interest-rate data that moves markets is locked behind institutional terminals most people can’t access or afford. We built Bank of Canada Odds to change that — tracking market-implied probabilities and presenting them in plain language, updated as conditions shift.
Corra Futures
Primary Data Source
230+
Pages Published
EN / FR
Bilingual Platform
Free
No Terminal Needed
- Why We Exist
The Problem We're Solving
Interest-rate expectations shape mortgages, borrowing costs, investment decisions, and financial planning across Canada. The data used by institutional traders has historically been inaccessible to everyone else. Bank of Canada Odds exists to close that gap.
Probability Over Prediction
We don't claim to know what the Bank of Canada will do. We show what financial markets are currently pricing in, based on live OIS and bond market data, updated as expectations shift.
Built for Everyday Canadians
Whether you hold a variable-rate mortgage, manage a fixed-income portfolio, or follow the news, our platform connects BoC policy expectations to the decisions that affect your financial life.
Analysis Tied to Live Odds
Every commentary piece is anchored to our live probability data. When CPI prints or employment data drops, we show what it did to the next meeting odds — not just generic market commentary.
Education, Not Advice
We clearly separate market-implied probabilities from editorial commentary. We never cross into financial advice. Our role is to inform and educate. What you do with that information is always your decision.
- Data & Methodology
How Our Platform Works
Our framework uses market-based financial instruments to estimate implied probabilities around future Bank of Canada policy decisions; the same signals institutional traders monitor, without the terminal subscription.
CORRA Futures & OIS Markets
Overnight Index Swaps tied to CORRA provide the most direct market read of where traders expect the policy rate to move at each scheduled meeting.
Government of Canada Bond Yields
Short-term GoC yields reflect rate path expectations and cross-validate OIS pricing at different time horizons.
Inflation & Employment Releases
CPI, core inflation, employment reports, and GDP data are the primary drivers of probability shifts between BoC meetings.
Bank of Canada Communications
Speeches, MPR releases, and Governing Council signals often reprice odds independently of scheduled economic data.
Probability Output
Inputs are synthesized into hold, cut, and hike probabilities for each scheduled meeting, updated multiple times daily during trading hours.
Why This Differs from Bloomberg WIRP
Bloomberg’s WIRP function is useful but assumes only one move per meeting and may not reflect real-time OIS volatility.
Our framework is designed specifically for the Bank of Canada’s meeting schedule, with Canadian-specific data inputs and scenario-aware probability modeling.
Update frequency: Probabilities update multiple times per day during trading hours. After major data releases, updates occur within minutes of the print.
Important limitation: Market-implied probabilities are estimates at a point in time. They are not guarantees and can shift rapidly. They reflect market expectations, not ours.
- The Team
The People Behind the Platform
A small team with backgrounds spanning capital markets, financial writing, business development, digital systems, and operations. No hedge fund. No institutional backing. Just people who wanted transparent rate data without the $20K terminal subscription.
Founder & Market Strategy
Ryan Yanch
Ryan leads strategy and market positioning at Bank of Canada Odds. As President of Guerilla Capital and Director of Nusa Nickel Corp, his background spans capital markets communication, investor relations, public-company awareness, and active market participation across equities, commodities, interest-rate futures, and macro-driven setups.
Markets, Research & Business Development
Luc Pichette
Luc brings experience as an investor, entrepreneur, and consultant focused on business strategy, market opportunities, and capital markets. At Bank of Canada Odds, he reviews market themes, identifies relevant macroeconomic developments, and supports outreach as the platform scales.
Financial Writer & Editorial Advisor
Marc Zerbola Challande
Marc brings experience in stock market media and financial communication, with connections to NorthCo Capital. At Bank of Canada Odds, he contributes to written content, commentary structure, and editorial perspective, helping translate rate- expectations data into language readers can act on.
Growth, Creative Direction & Digital Systems
Mahtab Mashuq Tonmoy
Mahtab works across brand strategy, creative direction, and digital operations. At Bank of Canada Odds, he leads website structure, user experience, design systems, and growth infrastructure; ensuring the platform presents rate-odds data as cleanly and accessibly as possible.
Team Operations Coordinator
Thu Thu
Thu Thu keeps the platform organized as it scales, supporting team communication, content workflow coordination, and day-to-day execution. Her work ensures the team stays focused on publishing clear, accurate, and responsibly framed information.
- Editorial Standards
How We Handle Information
For a YMYL financial site, editorial transparency is non-negotiable. Every piece of content on Bank of Canada Odds follows a consistent set of standards designed to keep information honest, accurate, and clearly scoped.
- Market-implied probabilities are clearly separated from editorial opinion and commentary at all times.
- Economic data releases are clearly distinguished from our interpretation of them.
- We do not present probabilities as predictions or guarantees. Odds reflect market pricing at a specific point in time.
- We do not accept payment to influence rate-odds presentation or commentary direction.
- Affiliate and partner relationships are disclosed where applicable, including on our mortgage rates page.
- Articles display published dates and are reviewed for accuracy before and after major data releases.
- We cite official sources, Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, and Government of Canada releases, wherever applicable.
Corrections Policy
If we identify factual inaccuracies, data presentation issues, or outdated information in any published content, we correct it as quickly as possible. Users can flag potential errors through our Contact page.
AI Content Disclosure
Some content is produced with the assistance of AI writing tools. All AI-assisted content is reviewed, edited, and approved by a named team member before publication. Probabilities and market data are never AI-generated.
Official Sources We Reference
- Important Disclaimer
Bank of Canada Odds is an educational and informational platform. Nothing published here constitutes financial advice, investment advice, mortgage advice, trading advice, legal advice, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities may change without notice and do not guarantee future Bank of Canada decisions. Always consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
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